An expanded pre-draft showcase: Todd McShay's suggestion for helping 2021 NFL draft prospects
The road to the 2021 NFL draft got even more complicated with the news that the Big Ten, Pac-12, Mountain West and MAC conferences will postpone their 2020 college football seasons. The coronavirus pandemic has put us in a tough situation this year, and many top draft prospects now face losing a full 12- to 15-game reel of game tape. It puts players, as well as NFL team scouting departments, at a disadvantage come draft time next year. So I started brainstorming.
What can we do to at least partially replicate the opportunity those prospects no longer have to show what they can do on the football field? How can we help everyone -- the players and the teams seeking them -- as we enter the pre-draft process?
As I thought through it, I kept coming back to one possible solution: an expansion of the annual late-January Senior Bowl week. Different iterations of a minicamp have been tossed around already, including by Green Bay Packers GM Brian Gutekunst last week, but I wanted to offer my personal take on what I'd like to see in this very weird, very different NFL draft prep landscape. Let me explain.
Why does it matter?
On top of the conference decisions that will sideline players, many other prospects have voluntarily opted out or will before their seasons begin. As of now, the ACC is among the conferences still planning to kick off in 2020, but Miami Hurricanes outside linebacker Greg Rousseau and Virginia Tech Hokies cornerback Caleb Farley -- the draft class' top edge rusher and No. 3 corner, respectively -- already declined to suit up. Fifteen of the 32 names in my early mock that posted last week, including two of the three quarterbacks, aren't playing this fall, and that number could still climb.
Even looking ahead to the spring, I expect that most of the highly ranked talent would opt out of a potential season there, too. In fact, it won't surprise me if 100-plus draft prospects decide to declare and prepare for the draft rather than play a college season at that point. Just look at the logistics of it. A full college season would be followed by NFL rookie mini camps just weeks later. Then comes July training camp and a full NFL season. Some guys could be looking at nearly 30 football games on top of grueling camps over a seven- to nine-month period. The human body isn't built for that. And with the NFL draft unlikely to move from its current April 29 date (it must be between Feb. 14 and June 2, per the new CBA), the college season could still be ongoing when its time to make picks. Any Round 1 guy planning to declare for the draft who currently is facing a postponement of his final season has in all likelihood played his final down of college football.
To be clear, it won't hurt the Trevor Lawrences of the world too much. I've seen everything I need to see from him -- he is the best quarterback prospect I've seen since Andrew Luck came out of Stanford. Instead, this is going to impact the guys who make the jump in their final year, guys who capitalize on a new opportunity on the depth chart, guys with a suddenly more favorable coaching system, etc. As I complete my summer player evaluations, I can't tell you how many had the phrase "Need to see ___ from him this fall" or "Still needs to develop ___" or "Could benefit from more game experience." This final slate of collegiate games plays a big part in where prospects are taken in April. Just look at the three most recent No. 1 picks:
Joe Burrow entered the 2019 season with a fifth-round grade from me. His name hardly was on the pro radar. Then he went undefeated en route to an LSU national title, the Heisman Trophy, a 76.3% completion percentage, 60 touchdown passes and college football's best Total QBR (94.9). He was the no-doubt No. 1 overall selection for the Cincinnati Bengals this April, less than a year after he was considered maybe an NFL backup.
Kyler Murray entered 2018 with just 142 passes over two seasons with Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Considering he had two seasons of football eligibility remaining and all signs were pointing to a MLB career, NFL scouts I spoke with in the summer of 2018 didn't even do a full-tape evaluation of Murray. I took a wait-and-see approach, as well. Then he lit up college football with 54 total touchdowns as one of the game's most electric dual-threat prospects and new Arizona Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury decided to take Murray at No. 1 to design his offense around him.
Baker Mayfield came into his final college season at Oklahoma with a third-round grade. He jumped to first-round consideration thanks to a great season and ended up going No. 1 to the Cleveland Browns in the 2018 draft.
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